Mine Will Be A Good Death

The United States has seen birthrates decline.  The current birth rate is 13.68 babies per 1000 people.  In a country like Niger is is 50.06 per 1000, Afghanistan 39.3, Mexico 18.87, Iraq 28.19 and Ethiopia is 42.59.  The nation's population growth rate however is .9%.  If you look at the numbers since 2000 the birthrate has gone from 14.2/1000 people to 13.68/1000 or a drop of .52 per 1000 people.  The death rate has gone from 8.7/1000 people to 8.39/1000 people. It has dropped .31.  Our birthrate is dropping faster than our death rate.  4,293,434 babies are born each year yet only 2,633,180 people die each year. The way the US continues to construct its social welfare systems from social security to now Obamacare this equation will not work.  Both programs are entirely based on the young subsidizing the old generation after generation.  Did no one see this train wreck before they passed the law?

This is going to sound very harsh -- but we are prolonging life well beyond what we should. We are saving babies we should not.  Through humanitarian efforts we have reduced the death rate in a country like Niger from 23.17 deaths per 1000 people in 2000 to 13.76 per 1000 people in 2012 but we have done NOTHING to quell the birthrate of over 50 per 1000 people.  We cannot address one end of life while ignoring the other.

In developed countries, the necessary replacement rate is about 2.1. Since replacement cannot occur if a child does not grow to maturity and have their own offspring, the need for the extra .1 child (a 5% buffer) per woman is due to the potential for death and those who choose or are unable to have children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 due to higher childhood and adult death rates.

With total fertility rates of 7.37 in Niger (as of mid-2007), the resultant growth in these countries' populations is expected to be phenomenal over the next few years, unless growth rates and total fertility rates drop. The total fertility rate in the US in 2010 was only 1.931. We are not replacing ourselves.  Our increase in population now (and this started in about 2002 when the birthrate dropped below replacement rate) is due to immigration. If we really do want to take care of ourselves immigration policy has got to change.

The number of immigrants (legal and illegal) in the country hit a new record of 40 million in 2010, a 28 percent increase over the total in 2000.  In 2010, 23% of immigrants and their U.S.-born children (under 18) lived in poverty, compared to 13.5% of natives and their children. Immigrants and their children accounted for one-fourth of all persons in poverty.  The children of immigrants account for one-third of all children in poverty.  In 2010, 36% of immigrant-headed households used at least one major welfare program (primarily food assistance and Medicaid) compared to 23 percent of native households.

Of adult immigrants (25 to 65), 28 percent have not completed high school, compared to 7 percent of natives.  The large share of immigrants with relatively little education is one of the primary reasons for their lower socioeconomic status, not their legal status or unwillingness to work. New immigration (legal and illegal) plus births to immigrants added 22.5 million residents to the country over the last decade, equal to 80 percent of total U.S. population growth.

"Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free;

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore,

Send these, the homeless,

Tempest-tossed to me!

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

This was written by Emma Lazarus as a sonnet in 1883; its lines appear on a bronze plaque in the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty placed there in 1903. It is a wonderful creed and it does describe the fabric of Early America. The welfare system in the United States didn't begin until in the 1930s during the Great Depression -- three decades after this sonnet was included as a part of our informal immigration philosophy. The start of the American welfare state found expression in the work-creation policies of the New Deal. Love the New Deal or hate it -- it was "work fare". It was at least molded in creating jobs and engaging people in WORK. It was believed then that character and self confidence was supported by feeling useful.  That part of the New Deal is hard to argue with. Today we reward sloth and we do little to encourage people to discover what they are capable of.  We give them no incentive.

Times have changed and so must we.  The United States has ceased to be a land of opportunity where one can achieve based on what an immigrant is willing to invest -- be it financial or sweat.  It is a land of hand outs.  We are allowing native born people to not only subsidize other native born people but to heavily subsidize immigrants.  If you come here you come to work.  If you can't afford to bring your family then you bring them when you can afford it. I would not expect it any other way were I the one immigrating.  When I lived in Mexico as a kid, I never dreamed to speak English to anyone. I was on their turf and I respected that. A bleeding heart will more often than not bleed out. Hard decisions are hard.

Malthusian economics is often called the "economics of death" and it gets a bad rap for being focused on pessimism; it is brutal in a "nature" sense.  The great Malthusian dread was that "indiscriminate charity" would lead to exponential growth in the population in poverty, increased charges to the public purse to support this growing army of the dependent, and, eventually, the catastrophe of national bankruptcy. Though Malthusianism has since come to be identified with the issue of general over-population, the original Malthusian concern was more specifically with the fear of over-population by the dependent poor! 

In the United States in 2010 the birthrate to women whose household income was under $10K was 98.30 babies per 1000 people.  The rate for household incomes over $75K was 54.80 per 1000, just at half the rate of those earning under $10K. As the income increases on the chart the birth rate declines in a unbroken trajectory.  So have we created a perfect Malthusian storm? I would argue, yes we have.  And the programs and the trajectory that the United States in on only projects worse.

We can't reward people for having babies they can't afford. I was in line one day at a store and the cashier and the lady at the register were bragging about how many babies their daughters each had and how much free stuff they were each getting because of it.  We shouldn't prolong life just to have our heartbeat a little longer; give me the right to end my life when I want to and I will! We can't bring aid to countries that refuse to change their behavior. If people could keep their own earnings and not allow the government to redistribute it -- yes, there would be a generation of suffering.  There would. But until something changes we are all going to fail and suffer in ways you have yet to imagine. The birthrate in poverty is growing and it is exponential.  It will kill all of us or reduce us to tribes and bands of survivalists.  I wish I had been born in the 40s.  Those of us who are now reaching middle age did enjoy a wonderful childhood; for that I am grateful. Our aging is going to get harder and harder. I am happy to take care of myself if my government will let me keep what is MINE and allow me to do that.

For those of you reaching your twilight years -- good for you!  You had a blessed generation rife with opportunity; you all had the chance to do very well for yourselves and even if you did not, you have some safety nets in place that will probably outlast you.  For you young people, I am sorry this has happened to you.  I am sorry that you will carry the burden of bad government decisions.  I am sorry that you will have only two outcomes: 1) you will live in what amounts to be a communist society where each of you pools everything and a centralized government will hand back to you an "equal" share regardless of how much you contributed or 2) you will live in warring tribes, fighting to keep what is yours from marauders and thieves. It is my hope that you will take pity on the elderly like I will be and allow me to fend for myself unattacked and unassaulted.  If you really NEED it, I will share and we can work together. I will teach you with my experience and you can help me with your youth.  If you demand to take it from me and insist on leaving me with nothing, I will gladly die trying to protect myself and my well-being and mine will be a "good death".

 

 

Car Buying in the Not-So-Distant Future

Imagine this…

You are going to buy new car.  You are on a budget and you only need a commuter car to get you to work and back -- the commute is 20 miles each way.  You live in southern California where the weather is glorious nearly all of the time.  You know pretty much what you want and what you need and you know very well what you can afford.

You go into your local used car dealership only to find it empty and closed down.  Confused you drive down to your local "New Car Mall" and are stunned at what you see... A sea of cars, all roughly the same color, all the same style and only subtle differences.  You go into to talk to someone and ask what the heck is going on.

There is a very long line that snakes around the building and you take your spot in line.  People are chatting as they wait and you try to pick up bits of information.  Some seem elated to be there!  One lady comes bouncing out of the dealership holding up a set of keys to her new car!  She is telling everyone that it was FREE!  She got a free car. You think "wow, she must have won some contest."

The line moves slowly. As people come out of the building a few more are happy but many seem very angry. Some are screaming that their cars were free; others that they only cost $100 and others are seething with anger and stay silent as they storm away.  It is quite a confusing spectacle.  You finally get up to the customer service person and say you need to talk to a salesman about getting a used commuter car. 

She tells you, "Oh you can't buy a used car anymore.  It is against the law." 

You think you are dreaming so you play along and say, "Okay show me a new one". A man comes out leads you over to three cars that are slightly different shades of white, about the same size and have only subtle differences.  One is a coupe, one is a hatchback and one is a four door -- all the same model.  These ones happen to be Fords.  You glance across the street at the Toyota dealership and see the SAME three cars in their lot and they are Toyotas over there.  Next door they are called Chevys…   

Definitely a dream. 

He asks you which one you want. 

You say, NONE of them!  You say, "I want a little red, 4-speed, hatchback for around $12,000, preferably used!" 

He shakes his head and tells you that is no longer available that used cars are now against the law, they just aren't safe enough.  These are the only three that are approved by the government and these are your three choices.  

You ask him, "How much do they cost?" 

He asks, "How much do you make?" 

You say, "What difference does that make?" 

He says before he can quote you a price you must provide your personal and financial information to their dealership.  He then tells you that if you leave WITHOUT a car you will have to pay them $100! Oh and for every year that you go without one of these cars you will have to pay more and more. 

This has GOT to be a dream, right? So you continue to play along. 

You provide him your details and he plugs them in to some computer kiosk thing and it spits out a number.  He shakes his head and tells you that you make too much money and that you will have to pay full price.

You are stunned.  You are a waitress and a student.  But the tips that are reported can be pretty good. You tell him though that you can barely pay your bills and you are amazed that what you make is considered "too much". He tells you that is what the computer said and what it says is SO!

You point out that a lady just left hollering that her car was free!  What gives? He says, well she has 12 kids and she is underemployed so her car has to be free.  You HAVE to pay full price to help offset the cost of giving that lady her free car.

It's a dream. It’s just a dream…

He begins to list all the options that come on the cars… Seatbelts, back up camera, GPS navigation, On-Star, 28 airbags, ergonomic, heated, power seats, built in child seat, heated mirrors, 4-wheel drive, studded snow tires, it has the new automatic braking system that can sense a slow down ahead to avoid a crash, it can parallel park itself, it is electric, it comes with a helmet too that you must wear while driving it and it does not come with a radio of any kind .

You tell him he is nuts. All you want is a very basic commuter car to get you to and from your work and school.  I don't need all of these options and you WANT a radio.

He looks at you as though you have two heads. He says, "Haven't you been paying attention? The government mandates that you have all of these safety options -- they want you to be safe!  It is for your own good.  Oh and the radio causes people to get distracted while driving so they are no longer allowed in cars.

You say, "Why the snow tires and 4-wheel drive?"

He says, "Well it is POSSIBLE it could snow. It has before in southern California and you have to be prepared for ANYTHING that is possible."

"Why the heated, power seats with all the ergonomics?"

"You might strain your back on long drives and this will help avoid that."

You tell him your commute is 20 miles. He tells you that doesn't matter.

You tell him that you don't have a kid and you are never going to have a child -- it isn't medically possible you say sadly.

He says well every must have a built in child seat no matter what -- just in case…you might adopt!

You then tell him that you don't WANT an electric car and there isn't a charging station at school or at home.  He says that they have taken care of that and your landlord will be fined until he installs one for you. Of course your rent is going to go up to cover the installation and the higher electricity bills and your tuition is going to have to go up too to cover those costs for the school.  He looks at his list of your information and says, "Lucky you!  There is a charging station right where you work! But of course you are going to get a cut in pay so your boss can afford to pay his electric bill."

No, not a dream. This is a freakin' nightmare!

In frustration you tell him to just show you the damned hatchback.  He opens the door and you slide in to the driver's seat.  You look around and it isn't bad to look at. You ask for the keys -- he gives them to you. As you reach for the ignition you notice a credit card swipe machine mounted in the dash. You ask him what the heck it is for.

"Oh that?" he says, "It is for when you start the car. You need to swipe you credit card until you have paid your deductible."

"What?"

"Yes" He says, "Until you have reached your deductible you have to swipe your card each time you start it."

"Deductible for what?" you stammer.

He goes on to explain that any time you use your car you must pay.  Although there are some trips that are free.  If you are going to the post office, if you are going to a volunteer job with a federally licensed organization, if you are dropping your child off at a public school or if you are going to a rally those trips are all free!

"But I don't have kids! Can I get another free trip instead?" you ask.

Nope that's all the car will allow.

"I pay all my bills online and I use FedEx. I never go to the post office."

He just looks at you blankly and says that these are the ONLY free trips and there aren't any substitutions. Period.

"How does the car know where I am going? You ask sarcastically.

He very seriously says, "Oh it KNOWS."

Wake up, wake up, wake up you think to yourself.

Well how much will it cost every year?  He looks as his tablet and swipes a few times and says, "For this car only $12,000."

You shriek, "TWELVE THOUSAND DOLLARS?" You only take home $3000 a month. That is one-third of your take home pay!

You ask him how it all works. He tells you that each time you make a trip the car totals up the mileage and then charges your card whatever the government rate is for mileage.  Right now that is 48.5 cents a mile. 

But wait he says, excitedly, "You get 80% of your miles paid for after you meet your deductible! Isn't that great?"

You tell him that you only drive about 10,000 miles a year - you would have to drive nearly 25,000 miles a year to meet your deductible. You will never reach your deductible. And what the heck does the 80% mean?

He goes on to explain that when you swipe your card it knows how many miles you have driven and once you have drive enough miles to pay off your deductible then you only pay 80% of the 48.5 cents or 10 cents!  Oh and you still get those FREE trips!

You stop, collect your thoughts and summarize to him all you have been told.

 

1. I can't buy a used car; I must buy a new one.

2. I only have three to choose from all slightly different shades of white.

3. They come with options I don't want or need.

4. It doesn’t come with options I DO want.

5. I have to pay full price for the car because I work hard and earn a living -- the price is non-negotiable yet other people who don't work hard are getting the same car for free. I have to pay more so they can pay less.

6. The car charges me 48.5 cents a mile each time I use it until I have driven 25K miles, even though I will never drive that much and then it only charges me 10 cents a mile after that.  

7. IF I had kids dropping them off at school would be free ONLY if they attended public school.

8. Even if I go across the street to the Toyota dealership my choices are pretty much the same.

9. My tuition is going up, my rent is going up and my wage is going to go down to offset the mandatory electric charging system that is being required to be provided for MY car.

10. AND you are going to charge me $100 if I leave her without a car.

He says, "YES, you got it! Welcome to the Affordable CAR Act!"

And you realize it isn't a dream…