Sunday, November 3, 2013

Mine Will Be A Good Death

The United States has seen birthrates decline.  The current birth rate is 13.68 babies per 1000 people.  In a country like Niger is is 50.06 per 1000, Afghanistan 39.3, Mexico 18.87, Iraq 28.19 and Ethiopia is 42.59.  The nation's population growth rate however is .9%.  If you look at the numbers since 2000 the birthrate has gone from 14.2/1000 people to 13.68/1000 or a drop of .52 per 1000 people.  The death rate has gone from 8.7/1000 people to 8.39/1000 people. It has dropped .31.  Our birthrate is dropping faster than our death rate.  4,293,434 babies are born each year yet only 2,633,180 people die each year. The way the US continues to construct its social welfare systems from social security to now Obamacare this equation will not work.  Both programs are entirely based on the young subsidizing the old generation after generation.  Did no one see this train wreck before they passed the law?

This is going to sound very harsh -- but we are prolonging life well beyond what we should. We are saving babies we should not.  Through humanitarian efforts we have reduced the death rate in a country like Niger from 23.17 deaths per 1000 people in 2000 to 13.76 per 1000 people in 2012 but we have done NOTHING to quell the birthrate of over 50 per 1000 people.  We cannot address one end of life while ignoring the other.

In developed countries, the necessary replacement rate is about 2.1. Since replacement cannot occur if a child does not grow to maturity and have their own offspring, the need for the extra .1 child (a 5% buffer) per woman is due to the potential for death and those who choose or are unable to have children. In less developed countries, the replacement rate is around 2.3 due to higher childhood and adult death rates.

With total fertility rates of 7.37 in Niger (as of mid-2007), the resultant growth in these countries' populations is expected to be phenomenal over the next few years, unless growth rates and total fertility rates drop. The total fertility rate in the US in 2010 was only 1.931. We are not replacing ourselves.  Our increase in population now (and this started in about 2002 when the birthrate dropped below replacement rate) is due to immigration. If we really do want to take care of ourselves immigration policy has got to change.

The number of immigrants (legal and illegal) in the country hit a new record of 40 million in 2010, a 28 percent increase over the total in 2000.  In 2010, 23% of immigrants and their U.S.-born children (under 18) lived in poverty, compared to 13.5% of natives and their children. Immigrants and their children accounted for one-fourth of all persons in poverty.  The children of immigrants account for one-third of all children in poverty.  In 2010, 36% of immigrant-headed households used at least one major welfare program (primarily food assistance and Medicaid) compared to 23 percent of native households.

Of adult immigrants (25 to 65), 28 percent have not completed high school, compared to 7 percent of natives.  The large share of immigrants with relatively little education is one of the primary reasons for their lower socioeconomic status, not their legal status or unwillingness to work. New immigration (legal and illegal) plus births to immigrants added 22.5 million residents to the country over the last decade, equal to 80 percent of total U.S. population growth.

"Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free;

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore,

Send these, the homeless,

Tempest-tossed to me!

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

This was written by Emma Lazarus as a sonnet in 1883; its lines appear on a bronze plaque in the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty placed there in 1903. It is a wonderful creed and it does describe the fabric of Early America. The welfare system in the United States didn't begin until in the 1930s during the Great Depression -- three decades after this sonnet was included as a part of our informal immigration philosophy. The start of the American welfare state found expression in the work-creation policies of the New Deal. Love the New Deal or hate it -- it was "work fare". It was at least molded in creating jobs and engaging people in WORK. It was believed then that character and self confidence was supported by feeling useful.  That part of the New Deal is hard to argue with. Today we reward sloth and we do little to encourage people to discover what they are capable of.  We give them no incentive.

Times have changed and so must we.  The United States has ceased to be a land of opportunity where one can achieve based on what an immigrant is willing to invest -- be it financial or sweat.  It is a land of hand outs.  We are allowing native born people to not only subsidize other native born people but to heavily subsidize immigrants.  If you come here you come to work.  If you can't afford to bring your family then you bring them when you can afford it. I would not expect it any other way were I the one immigrating.  When I lived in Mexico as a kid, I never dreamed to speak English to anyone. I was on their turf and I respected that. A bleeding heart will more often than not bleed out. Hard decisions are hard.

Malthusian economics is often called the "economics of death" and it gets a bad rap for being focused on pessimism; it is brutal in a "nature" sense.  The great Malthusian dread was that "indiscriminate charity" would lead to exponential growth in the population in poverty, increased charges to the public purse to support this growing army of the dependent, and, eventually, the catastrophe of national bankruptcy. Though Malthusianism has since come to be identified with the issue of general over-population, the original Malthusian concern was more specifically with the fear of over-population by the dependent poor! 

In the United States in 2010 the birthrate to women whose household income was under $10K was 98.30 babies per 1000 people.  The rate for household incomes over $75K was 54.80 per 1000, just at half the rate of those earning under $10K. As the income increases on the chart the birth rate declines in a unbroken trajectory.  So have we created a perfect Malthusian storm? I would argue, yes we have.  And the programs and the trajectory that the United States in on only projects worse.

We can't reward people for having babies they can't afford. I was in line one day at a store and the cashier and the lady at the register were bragging about how many babies their daughters each had and how much free stuff they were each getting because of it.  We shouldn't prolong life just to have our heartbeat a little longer; give me the right to end my life when I want to and I will! We can't bring aid to countries that refuse to change their behavior. If people could keep their own earnings and not allow the government to redistribute it -- yes, there would be a generation of suffering.  There would. But until something changes we are all going to fail and suffer in ways you have yet to imagine. The birthrate in poverty is growing and it is exponential.  It will kill all of us or reduce us to tribes and bands of survivalists.  I wish I had been born in the 40s.  Those of us who are now reaching middle age did enjoy a wonderful childhood; for that I am grateful. Our aging is going to get harder and harder. I am happy to take care of myself if my government will let me keep what is MINE and allow me to do that.

For those of you reaching your twilight years -- good for you!  You had a blessed generation rife with opportunity; you all had the chance to do very well for yourselves and even if you did not, you have some safety nets in place that will probably outlast you.  For you young people, I am sorry this has happened to you.  I am sorry that you will carry the burden of bad government decisions.  I am sorry that you will have only two outcomes: 1) you will live in what amounts to be a communist society where each of you pools everything and a centralized government will hand back to you an "equal" share regardless of how much you contributed or 2) you will live in warring tribes, fighting to keep what is yours from marauders and thieves. It is my hope that you will take pity on the elderly like I will be and allow me to fend for myself unattacked and unassaulted.  If you really NEED it, I will share and we can work together. I will teach you with my experience and you can help me with your youth.  If you demand to take it from me and insist on leaving me with nothing, I will gladly die trying to protect myself and my well-being and mine will be a "good death".

 

 

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A Girl and Her Dog

A Girl and Her Dog